Congressional Wheeling and Dealing — The Iran Nuclear Accord

COMMENTARY

by Sarah Ann Haves

The litmus test on whether the Iran nuclear deal is good for America or not has come down to bottom-line politics. Do members of the U.S. Congress listen to their constituents and to their own moral conscience regarding what many perceive as a bad deal that needs to be opposed?  Or, do those in Congress, faithful to the Democratic Party, follow the lead of their Commander in Chief American President Barack Obama, regardless of what their gut feelings are?  Weighing how their “yes” or “no” vote will be perceived by faithful voters in their state, they are also considering how that vote might curry favor for them in future political dealings. Political horse-trading is already playing into this decision-making process by members of Congress on Capitol Hill.

Even if the first round of voting results in opposition to the accord; forcing Obama to use his veto power; most analysts predict that the second round of voting will result in the Iranian deal receiving congressional approval. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is apparently waiting before allowing himself to become engaged in conversations regarding additional military aid to Israel if and when the deal is approved. He is still hoping for a miracle.

To-date, it looks like opponents of the Iranian nuclear deal are closer to getting the initial votes they need to reject the accord during the first round. Currently, they need the support of only four out of 14 Democrats in the Senate who have not yet made a decision. Lobbyists on both sides of the fence are working on Capitol Hill day and night, prodding and pushing, hoping to convince the undecided to turn their way.

Those who oppose the deal admit that, ultimately, they can’t kill it. But, they hope Obama will have to use his veto power to secure it. This will be seen as a loss of confidence in Obama by a majority in Congress. Reportedly, in order to avoid a filibuster, opponents of the deal must be assured that more than 60 senators will disapprove the resolution before the first round of voting. It is Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid that is threatening a filibuster. This has irked members of Congress that strongly believe the Iranian nuclear deal deserves to come to the Senate floor for a vote.

Some analysts contend that the White House would like the filibuster to be successful so that Obama is not embarrassed by having to use his veto power on a deal that he perceives to be his biggest foreign policy accomplishment to-date.  However, stifling a vote this critical in Congress with a filibuster, could simply push frustrated American politicians into using their future congressional powers to tighten the noose around the neck of Iranian mullahs for illegal activities and non-compliance.

Unfortunately, dirty politics behind the scenes has reportedly resulted in pro-Obama Democrats threatening their colleagues regarding their future political ambitions. The threats are that if Democrats oppose the deal, and cannot be counted on to back Obama’s foreign policy initiatives, they will find themselves out of favor with his Administration and with other Democrats on Capitol Hill. This could hurt their future congressional campaigns, or their ability to get influential positions on certain sought-after congressional committees.

The Israel Project claims that a majority of Americans oppose the Iranian deal and want Congress to reject it. Therefore, if Congress is not able to cast its vote (because of a filibuster), or Obama loses in the first round and has to use his veto power, the result will be that the White House implements a deal that Americans do not want but because of politics cannot stop. This will put congressional Democrats on the defensive every time that Iran violates the accord. And, it gives congressional Republicans a decisive advantage with voters, especially in future political races.

AND, WHAT ABOUT THE IMPACT ON ISRAEL AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

This writer, speaking to a pedestrian on a street in Washington, D.C. this summer, heard an interesting comment. The pedestrian was supportive of Obama in every way, except they could not understand why he was so anti-Israel; and, why he was not willing to consider Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that the current deal on the international table poses a real threat to the Jewish State.

Most Americans perceive that the nuclear deal will leave Iran, as well as Israel’s other regional enemies, in a much stronger position politically, diplomatically, and militarily.  The deal will give Iran greater credibility in its Shiite alliances throughout the Middle East, and bolster the image of its mullahs who will use their power to increase their threat to Sunni Arab states. Russia is already taking advantage of this perceived threat of increased Iranian influence and power by seeking to provide countries, like Egypt, with a nuclear umbrella. Blueprints for nuclear power plants to be built in Egypt and other “moderate” Arab states are already being drawn up. Analysts have agreed for some time now that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East will be the result of an empowered Iran.

The Iran nuclear accord gives Iranian leaders $150 billion in sanctions relief to pour into the coffers of their terrorist proxies on Israel’s borders — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza. Iran will also be able to boost the military power of Syrian President Bashar Assad, one of Israel’s greatest enemies. And, all along, the Iranians will speak of Israel’s total destruction being their ultimate goal. Already, Israel has recently dealt with Iranian sponsored aggression. Iranian-backed terrorists launched four rockets into Israel from Syrian territory, sparking a strong Israeli response, and threatening a future confrontation on the Golan Heights.

Meanwhile, pro-Israel supporters are fighting hard in Washington, D.C. to convince Congress that the U.S. Obama Administration is strengthening Israel’s greatest enemy by going through with the “bad deal”; by giving into Iran’s demands to eventually position itself, 10-15 years down the road, as a nuclear threshold state.

Israel knows the consequences if the deal goes through and should already be engaging in a countdown plan, formulating long-term defense strategies to strengthen its military might in an ultimate showdown with Iran and its terrorist proxies.

“If a house is divided against itself, that house will not be able to stand.” Mark 3:25
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Unless otherwise indicated, Scripture taken from the New King James Version. Copyright ©1979, 1980, 1982 by Thomas Nelson, Inc. Used by permission. All rights reserved.

Ms. Haves is a news analyst, reporting on political, diplomatic, military and spiritual issues in Israel and the nations.